Miami @ Arizona
Miami -105 over Arizona

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Odds posted at 11:00 AM EST and are subject to change.

Miami -105 over Arizona

3:40 PM EST. What up Miami? Geez. After winning seven in a row, the Marlins have dropped nine of 10. How can that be? How can a team with the best starting pitching staff in the majors lose almost every game for almost two weeks? Like all pro sports, luck plays a massive factor in the outcomes and Miami hasn’t had much of the good variety all season. Seven of their nine losses during this ugly streak have been by one run. That type of bad luck is not even on the charts. We can almost guarantee that over the next five years or the previous five years, you could not and will not find a team that lost seven of its last nine games by one run.

All you really need to know about today’s matinee is that Sandy Alcantara (RHP - MIA) is an underdog to Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI). Miami is underpriced today in a big way so let’s get on it. As for the starters, here is the breakdown if you need it.

Alcantara’s slider (18.2% swing and miss rate) creates swings and misses and so does his change-up (16.3%). Keeping the ball on the ground continues to help his ERA, as two of his pitch offerings have at least a 57% groundball rate. When looking for starting pitchers that can provide K’s, groundballs, and pitch deep into games, Alcantara is one of the few on the list. Today he’s a dog to Arizona and Merrill Kelly.

Merrill Kelly has a 1.22 ERA after six starts. What the f**k Baseball? The reason for his low ERA is an 87.8% strand rate and not because of his 8% swing and miss rate. Dude allows contact and right now everything is being hit at somebody. Merrill Kelly has a 4.35 xERA. It doesn't look likely to improve further due to lack of strikeouts and that aforementioned stagnant swing and miss rate. So what you've seen is what you'll get: a contact-reliant pitcher who can maintain mediocre results based on his ability to spot pitches. Let’s see what happens.

Our Pick

Miami -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto