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Toronto +155 over N.Y. Yankees

7:05 PM EST. At 20-8, the New York Yankees just might be the luckiest baseball team on the planet. Forget the big names, big contracts and the lovely pinstripes because the Yanks do not pass the smell test. Even if the Yankees were an elite team (they are not), they are currently on pace to win 116 games. Last season, the Dodgers, who were totally loaded, went 106-56. In the American League, the highest win total was Tampa’s 100. In fact, the highest posted win total of all time is 116 and that feat has been accomplished just twice (2001 Mariners and 1906 Cubs), so the likelihood of the Yanks keeping up this pace is somewhere between slim and none.

Last year, the Yankees lost 70 games. Is it unreasonable to expect them to finish around that mark again here in 2022? Just in their division, the Rays and Red Sox were expected to be contenders again, while the Blue Jays took a big leap forward in talent and expectations. Baltimore has improved and is still scrappy as hell with reinforcements like the highly touted Adley Rutschman getting closer by the day to making his MLB debut.

A closer look at the Yankees schedule shows that they’ve mostly been feasting on teams that have been struggling when they met. Boston, Baltimore, Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City and Texas join the Blue Jays as the clubs New York has played this season. Only Toronto and Cleveland are over.500 in the first six weeks. It should be noted that the Baseball Team just got there at 15-14 and were slumping when they played the Pinstripers. The Tigers, Red Sox and Royals are a combined 27-58.

If you are wondering where this is going, here it is, we are going to fade the Yankees for the next four weeks or so every day. In the next month, New York will play the Blue Jays, White Sox, Rays and Angels as well as the O’s and Tigers. A correction to the good is also on the horizon for Detroit. The Yanks are overvalued every single day and we’ll expect them to play somewhere around .500 over the next 20 days or so, thus if we’re correct there are significant profits waiting.