Baltimore @ St. Louis
Baltimore +135 over St. Louis

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Baltimore +135 over St. Louis

7:45 PM EST. The Orioles promoted Kyle Bradish (RHP - BAL) from Triple-A to make his MLB debut on April 29th against the Red Sox. He made a subsequent start against Minnesota, which did not go well (4 IP - 6H - 4ER). This will now be his third start and he’s a kid to keep an eye on.

Acquired from the Angels in December 2019, Kyle Bradish got off to a stellar start to begin 2022. He was repeating that level prior to his promotion. The tall and angular righty uses a unique, over-the-top delivery that gives him a hint of deception. His 93-96 mph fastball is very difficult for hitters to pick up because of his arm slot. The heater features a nifty cut and can be challenging to make hard contact against. Bradish is a high-strikeout pitcher based upon more than his fastball. He has a nasty, hard slider, average curveball and a change-up that is thrown with similar arm speed to his other pitches. There is a lot to like here and now with two games under his belt (one good, one not so good), he’s definitely worth getting behind at prices like this. Aside from that, the Orioles are proving to be a pesky and feisty opponent.

St. Louis is overvalued today in a big way because Miles Mikolas (RHP - ST. L) comes in with a 1.53 ERA after six starts. He also has a nice BB/K split of 7/28 in 35 innings. This is a starter that suffered a flexor tendon injury and subsequent surgery that cost him all of 2020. That was followed by spring shoulder issues at the start of last year. In May of last year, a recurrence of his forearm pain was treated with stem cell injection.

That's enough to scare us off as a massive favorite but there’s more. Miles Mikolas has a low swing & miss rate of 6%. His 88% strand rate has combined with his .255 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) to create perhaps the luckiest profile among all starting pitchers in the business. Mikolas has an xERA of 3.92. His xERA last game was 5.50. His WHIP last game was 1.76. His surface numbers are a mirage and we therefore must attack.

Our Pick

Baltimore +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto