Today's Free Picks for
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Odds posted at 3:20 PM EST and are subject to change.
Kansas City +117 over Texas
8:05 PM EST. Just know that we don’t trust Brad Keller (RHP - KC) one bit. His 3.95 surface ERA is not supported by his skills. He has a 5.45 xERA. Last year, Keller experienced a pullback that was projected by a short-season xERA and xWHIP, and once his batted ball luck faded, his lack of K% upside and BB% inconsistency were exposed. Both his hit rate and xERA make the case that regression went too far, but his lack of foundational skills leaves little room for optimism.
Thing is, Martin Perez (LHP - TEX) is worse and when you have two equal teams and one is taking back a tag in a 50/50 proposition, we must side with where the profits land over an extended period of time. That would be with K.C.
Martin Perez is now just a swingman. He can get lefties out in a pinch, but his chronic struggles against righties mean he’s constantly in trouble. Five straight seasons with a 4.50+ xERA seal his fate on our fade radar when he’s favored. Final data point to convince you: his lifetime MLB Roto earnings (in 10 years) are MINUS $62. We have no idea if you know what that means but trust us when we suggest he has to be faded when he’s priced like he’s Justin Verlander.
Kansas City +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)