Today's Free Picks for
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Milwaukee -1½ +107 over Cincinnati
6:40 PM EST. We backed the Brewers yesterday in their 9-2 loss in Atlanta, but we are not going to be deterred from coming right back on them here, as they take a big step down in competition.
Enter the Reds, who are getting some love from this market today. Why? Well recent results, of course. Combined with the Crew getting crushed in the ATL, the Reds took 2-of-3 from the Pirates, nearly doubling their season win total in the process. Seriously. Prior to that three game set, Cincinnati had won just three games this season. Not three games in May, or three games the last three weeks. Three. Games. This. Season. Forgive us if we cannot generate the same excitement about these Reds as the efficient market, which has knocked Cincy down from its open at +155 to the deflated number posted now. We’ve not mentioned Reds starter Luis Castillo (RHP-CIN), as he matters not. The market has taken a stand with a five-win team presenting us with some value.
Brandon Woodruff (RHP - MIL) goes for the Brewers and if there’s been a more unlucky “Ace” in 2022, we don’t know who it is. Woodruff has posted a strand rate of just 60.3%, which is the first sign that he’s not been getting the bounces. The second is his inflated ERA of 5.18, which is directly correlated to that unlucky strand rate. “Woody” boasts an xERA of 3.09, which is a much better indication of how well he’s been pitching. His 11.47 K/9 is the highest strikeout rate that Woodruff has posted in his career. So, too, is his 74% first-strike rate. The goods under the hood say that a correction to the good figures to be coming “Woody’s” way. With his and the Crew’s stock down, this is a great opportunity to step in and get tremendous value on a short-priced favorite. Underlay.
Milwaukee -1½ +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)