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Odds posted at 3:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Tampa Bay +115 over L.A. Angels

9:38 PM EST. Noah Syndergaard (RHP - LAA) is still on the road to recovery from his Tommy John surgery two years ago and we hope to catch him in a down spot after posting both his first 100 pitch and 7 inning outing since getting cut on. That 4-0 shutout of the Red Sox last Tuesday might be enough for the market to exclaim that “Thor” is back, but we’re not ready to crown his ass just yet.

In addition to the strain of getting stretched out, there are some red flags with the one-time “Ace.” A look at Syndergaard’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR), we find that through four starts in 2022, he’s just a 0.5. That pegs “Thor” as what the WAR status in baseball would describe as a “scrub or workup player.” Yikes. For some perspective, Syndergaard, before his injury, posted WARs of 4.3 and 4.2 in 2019 and 2018, respectively. That’s an “All-Star player” in WAR terms. Moreover, “Thor” steps on the mound with the lowest Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) of today's 22 starting pitchers at just .230. That means he has a horseshoe in his back pocket with his hard-hit balls falling into the gloves of his Angels teammates. That number is unsustainable and a correction to the bad will come.

The Rays are going with their patented “opener” tonight, which suits us just fine because it’s a system that gets little respect in the market despite providing fruitful results. Jeffery Springs (LHP - TB) steps in for the Rays and the lefty appears to be well suited for this “opener” role. Of Springs’ 14 strikeouts this season, all 14 third strikes came on a swing and a miss. That’s pretty impressive. Dude appears to be legit, backing those K’s with a plus Called Strikes + Whiffs (CWS%) on each of his three pitches. Under the hood, there is a lot to like here. Springs figures to keep the Halos hitters guessing early, giving the Rays an excellent shot to win this game as the underdog.