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Milwaukee +115 over Atlanta
1:35 PM EST. What an interesting game this is. Aaron Ashby (LHP - MIL) has filthy stuff but the problem is that he can’t throw strikes. He’s appeared in six games with just two of them being as the starting pitcher. In those two starts, he walked nine batters in 9.2 frames but he also struck out 10. In relief, his command has been better. He has a very decent first-pitch strike rate of 66% so the potential to greatly improve his Ball% is there. He features four pitches. His two-seam fastball sits 93-97 with arm-side boring action. In the minors last year, he threw strikes under 65% of the time, which is below average. The low strike rate caused Ashby to throw too many pitches. His best offering is a 81-86 MPH slider with two-plane break. The late vertical movement leaves hitters flailing. It’s a plus-plus pitch. Ashby also incorporates a late-fading change-up with solid separation and deception off his fastball. It’s possibly a plus-plu pitch too. Throw in an occasional curve and there you have it, a lefty with nasty stuff that could pitch anywhere from 1 to 5+ innings. He has 22 strikeouts in 19 innings with 13 walks issued. He also has a wickedly strong 67% groundball rate. If he’s throwing strikes, he’s a beast. If he’s not, the Crew can still win here.
He suffered a fractured tibia that had to be surgically repaired. He threw 16 pitches on a broken leg. Dude had hip AND Tommy John surgery in 2011-12, and came back to post a 3.26 ERA in 2013. Of course, we’re talking about Charlie Bleepin' Morton (RHP - ATL) so it might not be wise to underestimate him at this point but numbers do not lie. Bleepin’ is 38-years old. In 24 innings, he’s walked 14 batters and struck out 18. His swing and miss rate is down to 7%. Last game it was 5% so he’s getting weaker. That’s what 220 innings a year after the age of 33 will do to one’s arm. He has thrown nearly 1700 innings over his career spanning 14 years. After five starts, Bleepin’ brings a 1.73 WHIP and a 6.85/5.94 ERA/xERA split. He used to be Charlie Morton. Now he’s Bleepin’ No Good. Yeah, the Brewers can win and we expect them too.
Milwaukee +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)