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Detroit +150 over Houston
2:10 PM EST. Signed to a minor league deal by Detroit in the winter of 2021, Wily Peralta (RHP - DET) was expected to serve as bullpen depth. With injuries plaguing the Detroit rotation, Peralta was given a shot to start on June 19 of last year and has compiled a 1.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over six games started. More injuries this year have opened the door for him again. He’s thrown eight innings this year but they all came in a relief role. He has 10 K’s and a strong 55% groundball rate but it's a small sample size. We’re not pimping Peralta here. He might get lit up badly but we’ll live with whatever he delivers because our attack on Jake Odorizzi (LHP - HOU) at prices like this must continue.
In 22 innings, covering five starts, Odorizzi has a BB/K split of 9/12 with a swing and miss rate of 6.7%. He has a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 32%/24%/44%. What that means is disasters are waiting to happen. Odorizzi has been living on the warning track this year. It’s only a matter of time before he gives up four jacks in three innings and his team is down six runs. We don’t know if this is that day but few pitchers will feel the power of regression more than this one. In the spirit of sticking with it, yeah, we’ll grab 7½ to 5 against this stiff.
Detroit +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)