Today's Free Picks for
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Colorado +130 over Arizona
9:40 PM EST. The Diamondbacks just went into Miami, faced three very decent pitchers and came out with the sweep. They are now a very competitive 13-13 with three wins in succession and a 7-3 record over their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks have truly been a surprise over the past two weeks after a very shaky start but to be priced in this range after a decent run is a badge of honor that is probably not warranted so it is time to attack both the D-Backs and their starter.
Like the team he plays for, Merrill Kelly’s (RHP) stock is also on the rise. Kelly comes in with a 1.27 ERA after five starts but these small sample early ERA’s is what will continue to provide us value because they are unsustainable. Kelly is a 33-year old with underlying stats that do not support his 1.27 ERA.
Last year, Kelly returned from thoracic outlet surgery with no visible impact on his skills, as his 2021 xERA was a spot-on match for his career 4.35 xERA. He doesn't look likely to improve further due to a lack of strikeouts and a stagnant swing and miss rate. He’s a contact-reliant pitcher who can maintain mediocre results based on his ability to spot pitches. His fate is often left to fortune. What he is not is a 1.27 ERA pitcher.
Chad Kuhl (RHP - COL) has been surprisingly decent (6.5 K/9, 1.90 ERA, and 0.85 WHIP) by focusing on his sinker and slider (combined 60% usage to 80%). Kuhl is throwing strikes, he’s getting hitters to swing and miss (13.8%) and he’s working deeper into games than most starters and that’s after starting three games at serious hitter’s parks (Coors x 2 and Philadelphia x 1). Kuhl is likely due regression also but his underlying stats support his improvements while Kelly’s do not. Besides, it is not Kuhl that is in the -150 range.
Colorado +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)