Today's Free Picks for
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Odds posted at 11:30 AM EST and are subject to change.
Washington +120 over Colorado
3:10 PM EST. You may recall us playing the “Coors Field angle” which was taking the underdog spotting -1½ runs at Coors but it appears as though many books have “adjusted” the price and that’s why you’re not seeing us play that angle. Today for instance, Washington is -1½ +150 on the Alternate Run Line, which is only 30 cents higher (at the time of this writing) than asking them to just win outright. We’ll pick our spots and in the case of this matinee affair, we’re sticking with the Nationals.
One or both of these starters is going to get crushed here. Antonio Senzatela (RHP - COL) is almost guaranteed to get crushed. Senzatela has six strikeouts in 20 innings this year with a swing & miss rate of 6.3%. His ERA of 3.66 is a complete mirage and completely unsustainable. Somehow, someway, this complete stiff has lucked his way into a strand rate of 89%. Antonio Senzatela is a true 6.00 ERA guy, plus or minus the error bars of hit%, strand% and HR/F.
Aaron Sanchez (RHP - WAS) has a weak swing & miss rate too. The difference between him and Senzatela is that Sanchez has an xERA of 4.06 while Senzatela’s xERA is 5.89. Sanchez has a 50% groundball rate and he throws strikes. He’s only walked one batter in nine frames but his strand rate is 50%, which is a ridiculous 40 percentage points lower than Senzatela’s strand rate.
Five weeks into the season, there are loads of misleading ERA’s that will absolutely correct. Antonio Senzatela is atop that board of starters with misleading ERA’s and he must be faded.
Washington +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)