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Odds posted at 11:30 AM EST and are subject to change.

Baltimore +135 over Minnesota

7:05 PM EST. Spenser Watkins (RHP - BAL) allowed one run on five hits and one walk while striking out three across 4.2 innings against Boston on Saturday. He did not factor in the decision. Watkins now has a weak BB/K split of 8/8 in 16 innings to go along with an ERA/xERA split of 2.55/5.33. However, his xERA last game was 4.02. He has a 70% first-pitch strike rate so we’ll not put emphasis on his eight walks in 16 innings. Dude has always been able to throw strikes and he also has a very strong 53% groundball rate.

The real target here is to fade Chris Archer (RHP - MIN) as the road favorite. In 15 frames, Archer has a BB/K split of 9/14. Unlike Watkins, Archer's first-pitch strike rate is 49% so his walks are supported. Archer has posted an incredibly lucky 90% strand rate and even luckier 21% hit rate. There’s nothing in his profile that supports his 2.93 ERA. His groundball/fly-ball split is weak too at 37%/51%. Four starts in and Chris Archer is performing a high wire act. What we know for sure is Archer has shown a sharp velocity drop, a flyball% spike, and he also made the  decision to stop throwing his sinker. Best case from here is some more luck in between continued blowups. Dude cannot be this price on the road against the feisty Orioles.