Arizona @ Miami
Arizona +140 over Miami

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Posted at 3:30 PM EST.

Arizona +140 over Miami

6:40 PM EST. What are we going to write about Miami that we haven’t already written about? We called them contenders very early in the season and suggested that they’re posted total (76) for season wins was much too low. After a seven game winning streak that improved their record to 12-8, the Fish dropped the finale yesterday but are still 12-9. Now Miami goes from being a dog or a very small favorite all year to being a big price and that my friends, is what we refer to as an overreaction. The fact that Miami has Pablo Lopez (0.39 ERA) adds to its appeal.

With a 3-0 record and a BB/K split of 4/23 over 23 frames, Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIA) is truly a legit ace. Dude can pitch but his 0.39 ERA is not sustainable and Miami cannot be this price over the Diamondbacks and their ace.

Zac Gallen (RHP - ARI) was throwing mid-90s at spring training and in three April starts, he has struck out 14 batters in 15 innings to go along with a strong 50% groundball rate. Small sample size, yes but he would return from an injury late last year and rally down the stretch with a 3.19/3.46 ERA/xERA split and 1.13 WHIP in 48 IP and he did so without much fanfare. At 26, the future looks bright thanks to a deep arsenal, neutral platoon, and a ground-ball lean that lays a steady foundation. This kid can pitch. Gallen was strong again in his last start against the Dodgers when he allowed two hits while striking out five across six scoreless but did not factor into the decision. As a +160 underdog that night, Arizona took home the money and this is another opportunity to buy Gallen at another bargain price.

Our Pick

Arizona +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto