Seattle @ Houston
Seattle +120 over Houston

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Posted at 3:30 PM EST.

Seattle +120 over Houston

8:10 PM EST. Marco Gonzales (LHP - SEA) was forced from his previous start due to a left wrist contusion, but he’s slated to start here so we’re not going to worry about it. Gonzalez has had two good years and two bad years over the past four years and they’ve been alternating. If the every-other-year pattern of good performance continues, 2022 should be a good year but let's look at data that's more convincing than what's likely a coincidental pattern. His ERAs have been at 4.00 or under since 2018, but his xERAs tell a more accurate story of his inconsistency. His career ERA of 4.06 is a reasonable expectation for 2022. His career WHIP of 1.26 is slightly better than league average and is also a good estimator for this season. His excellent control, as evidenced by his BB%, provides a strong foundation for a decent WHIP. His ceiling is limited by his mediocre K-BB% and low swing and miss rate. As a soft-tossing lefty with no outstanding skill, Gonzales may or may not do well here but we’ll live with whatever he delivers because this is a wager against Houston’s starter.

One of the flavors this year will be sticking with it over an extended period of time. What that means is to keep fading or backing a pitcher that cost us money last time out. We faded Jake Odorrizi (RHP - HOU) last time out when he tossed six innings and gave up one run on one hit and a walk while striking out four on his way to a win Tuesday over the Rangers. What? We promise you that unless the winds are blowing in at 100 MPH or more, Odorizzi will not have another game like that all year. His fly-ball rate was 73% last game. He set a modern day record of 14 flyouts reaching the warning track. He was a fraction of an inch away from surrendering a jack to practically every batter he faced. Check out player props and Odorizzi is +265 to be the winning pitcher, which is a higher price than the price on Gonzalez to pick up the victory. Jake Odorizzi’s burgeoning xERA speaks the truth: as a flyball pitcher with shaky skills and the inability to get the ball over the plate, his risk/reward proposition is siding firmly on the former.

Our Pick

Seattle +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto