Kansas City @ St. Louis
St. Louis -1 +130 over Kansas City

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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

St. Louis -1½ +130 over Kansas City

1:15 PM EST. Steven Matz (LHP - STL) has put up some ugly results on the surface (6.11 ERA, 1.70 WHIP in 18 IP) but those marks have been inflated due to a crazy 47% hit rate and 62% strand rate. His command building blocks have been excellent (12.2% swing & miss rate, 64% first-pitch strike rate and 32% ball%). All of them represent significant improvements from where they were in 2021. Matz has 23 K’s in 18 frames. His xERA of 3.09 is more than three runs lower than his actual ERA. Matz is the poster boy this year for misleading ERA’s and how luck (in his case poor), plays a massive part above the surface. 

Meanwhile, Zach Greinke is the poster boy for the exact same thing only his luck has been off the charts. Greinke has an ERA/xERA split of 2.86/5.37, a gap close to three runs. Greinke comes in with MLB’s most misleading ERA in the first month of the season. Greinke has six strikeouts in 22 innings, thus a slew of disaster starts are waiting. Furthermore, and if it means anything, this is a one-game stopover for the Royals, who played at home yesterday and will be back at home tomorrow. Regardless, the Greinke fade is still on.

Pinnacle sports has St. Louis -1½ +133 in case you might be interested.

Our Pick

St. Louis -1 +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto