Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
Minnesota +125 over Tampa Bay

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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

Minnesota +125 over Tampa Bay

1:10 PM EST. Price here on the Rays is a bit too steep. After losing the opener of this series and snapping their seven-game winning streak, the Twins bounced back with a convincing 9-1 victory yesterday while belting out 14 hits. That’s a great sign that they did not lose their mojo. Minnesota has now won eight of nine while the Rays have scored three runs or less in three of four.

We’ll once again reiterate that we’ll put less emphasis on starting pitching and more emphasis on prices and teams. In this case, we have two starters that don’t figure to be around long anyway.

Josh Fleming (LHP - TB) has appeared in four games this season with three of those appearances coming in a relief role. He’s thrown just 12 innings and likely won’t go more than four innings here or twice through the order if everything goes peachy. Fleming is a finesse groundballer who needs everything working to succeed. His workload dipped in the 2nd half of last year due to a role change into a 1-2 inning guy. He was tagged with a 1.045 OPS the third time through the lineup but his already-flimsy skills cratered further. Lack of K% upside and a HR problem despite a low fly-ball rate taint his potential. Dude has a WHIP of 1.75 in his 12 frames.

Josh Winder (RHP - MIN) is a sturdy-framed righty with good arm speed and three potential above-average pitches. His fastball velocity is around average, sitting higher in short bursts, and the pitch gets its fair share of grounders due to the plane from his high slot. Both the slider and the curve flash plus but it does not stop there. Reports say that Winder has above-average command of a multitude of pitches and that he’s ready for a big league rotation. He’s pitched 10 innings this year, all out of the pen and while he has only struck out five, his 13% swing and miss rate strongly suggests more K’s are forthcoming. This start comes after getting his feet wet at this level and it is what the Twinkies were preparing him for. A true coin flip of a game that is not even close to being priced as such.

Our Pick

Minnesota +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto