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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

Milwaukee -1½ +101 over Chicago

2:10 PM EST. One of these teams can’t wait to get to the park while the other can’t wait to get the f**k out of town. The Crew have outscored the Cubbies 20-2 in the first two games of this series and today is the biggest starting pitching mismatch of them all. Furthermore, Milwaukee has won 11 of its last 13 games while the Cubs have dropped nine of its last 11.

Corbin Burnes (RHP - MIL) is a sick man. After successfully rebooting his arsenal (eliminating 4-seamer in favor of sinker) in 2020, he introduced the 3.0 version in 2021 (now throwing 50% cutters) to rave reviews. Of course, four plus pitches make it hard to go wrong. He has a BB/K split of 6/33 in 26 frames with a crazy 22% swing and miss rate. You cannot hit what you cannot see and right now the Cubs are seeing BB’s.

Meanwhile, Marcus Stroman (RHP - CHC) already has two 5 earned run outings in four starts. His strikeout rate is weak, his once elite groundball rate is declining and while we wouldn’t write him off just yet, there are enough warning signs to steer clear. Anyway, it doesn’t matter who the Cubbies are throwing out to the wolves today because they have to score runs to win and that does not seem likely here.