L.A. Angels @ Chicago
L.A. Angels +114 over Chicago

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Posted at 2:45 PM EST.

L.A. Angels +114 over Chicago

7:10 PM EST. Luis Giolito is an ace. Last year was his third straight season of excellence, cementing him as one of the top starters in the game. If not for his 1 inning, a 7 earned runs blowup on Patriot's Day, his ERA would have been 3.19. Giolito’s strikeout rate, and his swing and miss rate both slipped a bit but he compensated for that with a superior walk rate in line with xBB%. History of suppressing H%, xHR/F puts a bow on the whole package. However, he’s made two starts covering eight innings. Let’s give him five innings without allowing a run and we’d still take our chances on the Angels because this wager is all about getting behind L.A. to beat Chicago.

The Angels are 13-7 while the South Side are now 7-11 but Chicago has one win in its last 10 games and that sole victory occurred against K.C. in a game that was tied 3-3 in the seventh. The Halos have some serious swag going on unlike we have seen in quite some time with this franchise. They lead the majors in several offensive categories and it’s not just two guys.

Last season, Noah Syndergaard (RHP - LAA) suffered a May setback in his rehab from Tommy John surgery that cost him the season. Last time we saw him prior to his three starts this year, he owned excellent skills built from his above-average K%, swing and miss rate and ground-ball % along with good control. Take that as a baseline, expect bumps and a bit of rust along the way, and amortize it over a (likely) limited workload to set a prudent valuation. Fuck that. Dude has a groundball rate of 58%. He’s throwing strikes and he’s getting guys to miss with a solid 13% swing and miss rate and he’s getting progressively better with each start. He’s also pitching for the hottest team in the AL and taking back a price to boot.

Our Pick

L.A. Angels +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto