Cincinnati @ Colorado
Cincinnati +105 over Colorado

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BET365 -105 SportInteraction -105 Pinnacle +105 888sport +101

Posted at 2:45 PM EST.

Cincinnati +105 over Colorado

8:40 PM EST. The Reds run differential is -49. They just got swept at home by the Padres and are just 1-9 in their last 10 games. It is April 29th, and the Cincinnati Reds at 3-16 are already out of the race. If you ever bet on a horse, the Cincinnati Reds are the horse that got out of the gate poorly and was 30 lengths behind in the backstretch before pulling up. They opened as a very small underdog today but the efficient market saw it as an opportunity to spot a very small price to fade the worst team in baseball. We see it as an opportunity to take back a price on a team that surely can’t be THIS bad. We’re pretty sure the Reds couldn’t wait to get out of Dodge.

Antonio Senzatela (RHP - COL) sports a 4.73 ERA after three starts. Senzatela has five K’s in 13 innings and one of them was against the opposing starter. His swing and miss rate is 6.5%. Last year he posted a 4.42 ERA after 28 starts, which is not far off from his surface ERA this year after three starts. Add in that half his games are pitched at Coors and it’s not terrible on paper but underneath the hood, it’s a disaster waiting to happen. In his last full season in the majors back in 2019, Senzatela amassed the worst xERA (6.71) and WHIP (1.75) of any MLB starting pitcher who logged at least 120 innings. His skills today and ever since that season are almost identical to when he was the worst starter in baseball. This might be one of the worst five starters in baseball and it’s also worth noting that his line drive rate of 38% is among the worst marks. Even the Cincinnati Reds are licking their chops.

One could play this in five innings in order to take the bullpens out of the equation but that’s up to you. If the Reds are up by one run for instance, and Cinci’s starter is pulled, we could always flip our bet by betting the LIVE option. It is without question that the Reds possess the superior starter here by a wide margin.

Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN) is an elite prospect with an overwhelming fastball and four-pitch mix that made mincemeat of AA hitters (28% K-BB%) before slowing down a bit in AAA (20% K-BB%) last year. First and foremost, everything starts with the fastball. Even in modern-day baseball, regular pitchers don’t sit 100+ mph and certainly don’t touch much higher. Hunter is the hardest thrower in the game. The pitch isn’t reported to have remarkable shape or efficiency, but if that causes it to play down to the quality of your average 98-100, T102 fastball, that’s not much of a weakness. As would be expected from a flame-thrower in 2022, Greene pairs it with a power slider as his best secondary. Not thrown with quite the consistency as his heater, the pitch flashes plus and is generating swing-and-misses. Hunter Greene has the size and tools to make an impact at the MLB level and this is one of those spots where he and the Reds are worth getting behind. Finally, Lucas Sims returned to the Reds bullpen this week after spending time on the injury list. It can’t hurt.

Our Pick

Cincinnati +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto