Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
Baltimore +197 N.Y. Yankees
1:05 PM EST. Jameson Taillon (RHP - NYY) will start for the feast or famine Yankees today. The Yanks have won five in a row but when they face a decent starter like the one they’ll face today, they instantly become vulnerable because of their all or nothing approach.
Taillon sports an xERA that is almost a point higher (4.03) than his surface number, which is usually a sign there are some cracks to be found. The big one here is his astronomically high strand rate of 93.2%. That means he’s leaving runners on base just about every freakin’ inning he pitches. That is not a sustainable recipe for success. His groundball rate has been in a steady decline since 2016, dipping to a dismal 33.2% in 2021. This year he’s bounced back some to 43.2%, but that is still average at best and his swing and miss rate is below average at 8.9%
Bruce Zimmerman (LHP - BAL) is a pitcher that has been on our radar since his debut. He’s a former 1st-round pick with a command-first arm that does not look a bit out of place. In his first taste at this level last August, success didn't follow him from the minors to the majors, where hitters were tougher. A COVID bout essentially ended his season. In his second go around, he’s been so much better because he’s now trusting his killer breaking stuff. He has a 16% swing and miss rate and if he’s not intimidated by the setting, he should have the free swinging Yanks off balance all day. Big overlay.
Baltimore +197 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.94)