Miami @ Washington
Miami -1 +118 over Washington

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

Miami -1½ +118 over Washington

1:05 PM EST. Today’s two pitchers, Trevor Rogers (LHP - MIA) and Patrick Corbin (LHP - WAS) are a combined 0-7. Rogers is 0-3 while Corbin is 0-4. Corbin has an ERA of 11.20 while Mr. Rogers has an ERA of 6.94. We’ll now compare the two.

Trevor Rogers took things to another level in 2021, posting a 2.64 ERA over 133 innings. He hit a rough patch in July (4.08 ERA) before missing the entire month of August with a family emergency, but came back to post a 3.52 ERA in 23 September innings. He has uncharastically walked seven batters in 12 frames this year but his 70% first pitch strike rate screams out that his hands were cold. Dude has been a strike-thrower his entire pro career, which includes the minors. Rogers’ swing and miss rate last year ranked 10th among MLB starting pitchers with a minimum of 130 IP in 2021 and it backs his K%. This season, his swing and miss rate is just as good. He dominated vR in 2021 (.592 oOPS and 21% K-BB% in 416 plate appearances. He’s been very unlucky this year with a 47% strand rate and a .369 Batting Average in Balls in Play (BABIP). A massive correction to the good is forthcoming. Trevor Rogers has an xERA of 3.52.

Now Patrick Corbin. The Washington Nationals signed Patrick Corbin to a 140M contract. This year, the Nats will pay Corbin 23 million and you can bet your mortgage that they’ll be sending him out there every five days even if his arm falls off. In 14 innings covering four starts, Corbin has walked 11. Righties continue to pound him. Last year, Corbin led all NL pitchers in HR allowed and Batting Average against. His K-BB% is trending poorly. Last game, he got so frustrated that he started to over-throw and couldn’t hit the zone, which led to an xERA of 9.82. We don’t know what’s in store for Corbin today but we do know he will not be demoted because the man that signs the checks ultimately makes the decisions and if he’s going to pay Corbin 23M this year, he’s going to try and get his money’s worth. 140M doesn’t buy you what it used to. Finally, the Marlins are now 9-8 and have won five of six while the Nats have dropped seven in a row and have scored two runs or fewer in five of those games and three runs or less in all of them.

Our Pick

Miami -1 +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto