Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit +127 over Minnesota

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

Detroit +127 over Minnesota

1:10 PM EST. The exciting young duo of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal (LHP - DET) enjoyed really big springs. Mize adjusted his pitch mix this past spring with great results, validating the hope that his skills have more upside than they showed in 2021. He hurt his elbow but is back soon so we’ll look out for him. Meanwhile, Skubal showed a matured approach in the second half of 2021 and was electric this past spring and has also been electric in the first month of the season with one walk issued and 16 K’s in 16 innings. He's a premium breakout target and very worth getting behind.

Minnesota has won six straight. After opening the year 4-8, the Twinkies are now 10-8 and will send another nice looking arm to the hill here. Bailey Ober’s (RHP - MIN) skills were excellent in 2021 (4.13 xERA) and they were backed by some nifty command sub-indicators (11.4% swing & miss rate, 67% first-pitch strike rate, 33% ball%). It was a surprise season from a guy who was not considered a huge prospect. Control bona fides look legit, he turned slider into a plus pitch in the 2nd half (14.4% swing and miss), and flashed serious K upside on his change-up (23.8%) and curve (25.8%) in four September starts. However, we cannot overstate how many times we have seen this before and then it all comes crashing down. His high fly-ball rate is concerning. His xERA this year is 4.81 which is almost 2½ runs higher than his xERA. We’re not saying that he’s lucky or a fluke but his stock is high. Furthermore, Ober did not dominate in the minors and now that there’s film out on him, his second go around might not be as good. Even if Ober pitches well here, the Tigers always have a great chance to win when Skubal starts.

Our Pick

Detroit +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto