Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
Arizona +165 over Los Angeles
3:40 PM EST. The more we watch the Diamondbacks, the more we’re starting to like them. They have played two tough games against the Dodgers and that’s after playing three tough games against the Mets. Arizona is 4-3 in its last seven games and will send out a starter that cannot be priced like this at home. Not now and not even against the Dodgers.
Zac Gallen (RHP - ARI) is an ace. He was throwing mid-90s at spring training and in two April starts, he has struck out nine batters in nine innings to go along with a strong 50% groundball rate. Last year, an April injury (forearm) was a 1st half harbinger as two more followed (elbow, hamstring) and bred volatility. However, he would return and rally down the stretch (3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 48 IP) without much notice. At 26, the future looks bright thanks to a deep arsenal, neutral platoon, and a groundball lean that lays a steady foundation. This kid can pitch.
Julio Urias (LHP - LAD) can pitch too. He became MLB's only 20-game winner last year while swatting away concerns about being overused. His pinpoint control came with the best xBB% in majors (min. 100 IP), but we've seen one-year wonders before. Was that it? Urias' xERA, and his HR/F question another sub-3.00 ERA. In 12 frames this year, Urias looks shaky. He has walked six batters while striking out 11 with a below average 8.9% swing and miss rate. It may mean nothing but perhaps there is something to that “overused” narrative and he’s paying a bit of a price right now. With an xERA of 5.05 in his three starts, if you bet on Urias today or anytime in the near future, you’d be doing so after a career year. That cannot be recommended but getting behind Zac Gallen at this price at home can.
Arizona +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)