Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
Miami -1½ +125 over Washington
7:05 PM EST. Pablo López (RHP - MIA) is the straight goods. Few starting pitchers have the stuff, skills and underlying stats to support it like Lopez has. He misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground, his fastball velocity is in the mid-90s now, and RH bats have no chance against him (34% K%, 5% BB%, 29% K-BB%). If Mackenzie Core, a rookie for San Diego with 10 MLB innings to his name, is -1½ -105, then Pablo Lopez should be higher but he’s not. Miami isn’t San Diego you say? That’s true but Miami has won four of five with a series win over Atlanta and a 5-0 win over St. Louis thrown in plus they’re vastly superior to the Nats, just like the Padres are to Cinci.
Erick Fedde (RHP - WAS)? Please. Dude has a WHIP of 1.65 to go along with his 6.75/5.69 ERA/xERA split. Consistent groundball lean remains his big carrying skill but even that is waning (38% this year). Fedde’s anemic swing & miss rate (8.4% and 5% last time out) doesn’t exactly breed confidence either. Fedde’s mediocre control and abominable HR history are both more ingrained and predictable than ever before. Risk-takers will need a strong stomach of which we do not possess. Miami the -1½-run play of the day.
Miami -1½ +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)