Houston @ Texas
Texas +100 over Houston

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Posted at 6:00 PM EST.

Texas +100 over Houston

8:05 PM EST. We absolutely love that Taylor Hearn (LHP - TEX) has an ERA of 7.59 after three games started. That has caused a market reaction that trust they’re getting the Astronauts at a bargain when in fact, the opposite is true. ERA’s are one of baseball’s most misleading stats. If one were to look under the hood, one would see Taylor Hearn’s xERA of 4.01 after three starts. An unsustainably high 50% hit rate and low strand rate 66% have combined to sabotage Hearn’s ERA. Hearn has 14 K’s in 11 innings and he’ll face an Astros’ club that is hitting .184 against southpaws. Hearn is not new to the show either. Last year, he stayed healthy all season, and roughly split the season in relief and then as starter. He showed second-half glimmers that intrigue, including much better BB% at a slightly lower velocity. It's still mid-90s from the left side, though, which is why the team will give him every chance to start.

Jake Odorizzi has walked seven batters and struck out five in nine innings covering three starts. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is 29%/37%/34%. He’s the only starter in baseball after the first month whose line-drive rate is higher than both his fly-ball and groundball rates. Odorizzi is the epitome of pure fade material.



Our Pick

Texas +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto