BET365 +135 SportInteraction +135 Pinnacle +142

Posted at 3:45 PM EST.

St. Louis +142 over N.Y. Mets

7:45 PM EST. Cardinals plus this price at home? Really? Yeah, Max Scherzer (RHP - NYM) is a better starter than Miles Mikolas (RHP - St. L) 100% of the time but if the better starter won just 60% of the time, we’d all be rich. Point is, they don’t and with starting pitching meaning less than ever before, we cannot overstate the importance of choosing teams over starting pitchers. That doesn’t apply 100% of the time either but it does urge you to consider more than just the starters.

As good as Scherzer is, he’s still 37 years old and he’s going to lose some games or leave some games with his team tied or down. It’s also worth noting that the Cardinals have struck out the fewest times in the NL, which bodes well against Scherzer’s strongest asset. Scherzer has always been a fly-ball pitcher so all we need is one of the Cards hot bats to connect once and we should have a decent chance to cash this ticket. Scherzer is highly unlikely to go past six innings.

The Mets are 12-5 and the market can’t get enough of them with Scherzer on the hill. However, 10 of New York’s first 17 games have come against Washington and Arizona. The Orioles could be 12-5 with a schedule like that. We’re not suggesting the Mets are lousy but we are suggesting that they’re overpriced in a big way here in a very difficult venue to win at. Play the value.