Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:45 PM EST.
Cleveland +104 over L.A. Angels
9:38 PM EST. The Guardians opened as the favorite here but the so called “efficient market” did not agree and have now made the Angels the betting favorite. That’s a mistake that will once again very likely reveal that the market is not efficient. We, on the other hand, are absolutely thrilled to get Cleveland at this price.
We’ll now try to attempt to explain why the efficient market likes the Angels. First, Cleveland just got swept in New York after a very warm start and the perception is that water finds its level. You see, Cleveland was projected to lose close to 90 games this year so the efficient market was not buying its hot start. Cleveland has now lost six of nine.
Meanwhile, the Angels have won eight of their last 12 games and are now sitting at 9-7. They also have two of the game's premier players. That’s nice it really is but allow us to point out that the Guardians just played three game sets against San Francisco, the White Sox and the Yanks over their last nine games while the Halos played Texas, Houston & Baltimore. Hell, the Angels were lucky they didn’t get swept by the Orioles but all the market sees is wins and losses. As a result of some misleading records and surface stats, we now get Shane Bieber (RHP - CLE) and the Baseball Team as a dog against Michael Lorenzen (RHP - LAA) and the Angels.
Shane Bieber has elite stuff, which is nothing new. Take away one injury plagued season in the past five years and you’ll find his metrics confirm he’s elite and it’ll confirm it with remarkable clarity. That’s what we should be paying for but we’re not. Instead, we’re getting Bieber at a rock-bottom bargain.
Lorenzen has started two games covering 9.1 innings. He was whacked by the Astronauts and threw a strong six frames against the Marlins. Two games, one good, one bad but it means nothing. When we look at his past, we see a spring shoulder injury from last year that was initially played off as no big deal, but it cost him 3½ months. Then a hamstring issue stole two more weeks. His velocity was still there, but his swing and miss rate and his K% waned. Lorenzen would then crash and burn in a brief turn as part of Cincinnati’s closer mix. Now on the wrong side of 30, he's even less interesting than he was last spring. Dude is a Cincinnati Red castoff and now the efficient likes him over Bieber. Regardless of what happens, this is a ust play.
Cleveland +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)