Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:50 PM EST.
Detroit -1½ +152 over Colorado
7:10 PM EST. The Tigers are a bargain here all because the market puts so much emphasis on misleading ERA’s. Enter Antonio Senzatela (RHP - COL) and his 2.18 ERA after two starts. Man, talk about misleading! Senzatela has two K’s in eight innings and one of them was against the opposing starter. His strand rate is 90% with a swing and miss rate of 6%. Last year he posted a 4.42 ERA after 28 starts and some would call that baby steps. We call it luck. In his last full season in the majors back in 2019, Senzatela amassed the worst xERA (6.71) and WHIP (1.75) of any MLB starting pitcher who logged at least 120 innings. His skills today and ever since that season are almost identical to when he was the worst starter in baseball. Combine Senzatela’s lucky start with the fact that the Rocks are winning a few games and it creates this underlay.
Should we even mention that there will be a buzz around Comerica Park tonight? Last night over 21,000 filled the lower deck in anticipation of a history-making hit by Miguel Cabrera. Expect perhaps 10,000 or more tonight on a Friday but that’s not why we’re taking the Tigers.
Colorado has already overachieved. We all know it’s just a matter of time before they start losing eight out of every 10 road games. Tonight, the Rocks will face a young and quickly becoming elite starter in Tarik Skubal (RHP - DET). Skubal has walked 1 and struck out 10 in 10 frames thus far. There’s four more reasons he'll take another step up: 1) His improving skills vR; 2) his walk rate is trending down and his velocity is staying up; 3) his groundball rate is increasing while his fly-ball rate is decreasing; 4) his 2nd-half gains from last year is a solid indicator in his first full MLB season. Tark Skubal is starting to turn his raw stuff into pitchability and today we get him at a bargain.
Detroit -1½ +152 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.04)