Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:00 PM EST.
Texas +121 over Seattle
9:40 PM EST. In the last four years, Marco Gonzales (LHP - SEA) has posted two seasons with decent surface stats and two seasons with below average season stats. In his first two starts this year, Gonzales has an ERA of 3.00 but it’s fool’s gold. For the past four years and two starts this year, his overall skills were nearly identical and not all that good. His K% is weak. His heavy fly-ball lean emans HR allowed can get extreme. He survives on control, exit velocity suppression, defense, and a bit of luck. Crafty leftying ain't easy and while Gonzales may offer up some value as a dog in certain spots, he has no value priced in this range. Gonzales has a very weak 6.5% swing and miss rate over his last eight starts last year and first two starts of this year. He’s always at the mercy of good fortune and great defense.
In a month full of parity to start the MLB season, the Rangers have stood out in how poorly they've pitched, compiling one of the highest ERAs in baseball. Dane Dunning, Martin Perez and Taylor Hearn all struggled in their first two turns through the rotation. Combined, they gave up a whopping 37 hits in 24⅓ innings pitched. That means we get to buy low on Taylor Hearn (LHP - TEX).
In eight innings, Hearn has whiffed 10 batters and walked two. His ERA reads 4.70 after two starts but his xERA reads an elite 3.15. Tiny sample size yes, but there were signs last year. Hearn stayed healthy all of last year, and roughly split the season in relief and then as starter. He showed second-half glimmers that intrigue, including much better BB%. It's still mid-90s from the left side, though, which is why the team will give him every chance to start. Let's see what this third start of the year brings.
Texas +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)