Pinnacle -1½ +152 BET365 N/A SportInteraction N/A BetOnline -1½ +150 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 1:45 PM EST.

Boston -1½ +152 over HOUSTON

8:05 PM EST. Earl Weaver was quoted as saying, “Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher”. It’s stunning to think that as recently as 72 hours ago, the Red Sox appeared to be in the driver’s seat in this series. Now they’re hogtied in the back seat and hurtling toward a cliff. Ever since Boston’s crushing Game 4 defeat in which Alex Cora deployed Nate Eovaldi (RHP - BOS) as a reliever, there’s been much ado about how Cora was too aggressive in going for the kill in a series in which he already had a lead. In reality, it was not Cora’s decision to deploy Eovaldi so much as his call to follow it up by turning to literally Martín Pérez that spelled disaster for the Sox. Eovaldi was hardly lights out in his bullpen appearance, but it’s easy to see how one or two breaks—better positioning from Hunter Renfroe or better eyesight from Laz Díaz—would’ve positioned Eovaldi as a postseason hero once more.

Tuesday night’s debacle aside, Eovaldi can still further cement his October legacy by mimicking his Game 2 start: one in which he threw 5.1 innings of three-run ball, as the Red Sox cruised to an easy victory. Eovaldi has been pretty locked in all postseason, and while the 24 pitches he threw in Game 4 may conspire to limit how many outs he can get on Friday, he still gives the Red Sox a pronounced edge on the mound.

If Luis Garcia (RHP - HOU) has an advantage, it’s that at least he’s well rested. The rookie right-hander lasted just one inning in Game 2, coughing up five earned runs before being pulled with an “injury” (side note: is Jake Odorizzi done warming up yet)? Yet xERA tells us that Garcia wasn’t all that much worse than Eovaldi during the regular season, and so-called “slight adjustments to his delivery” could leave him better positioned to face a suddenly cold Sox lineup this time around. Even as such, the Astros don’t need Garcia to dominate. One assumes they’d love the right-hander to log at least three or four innings, but expect Dusty Baker to have a quick hook with a bullpen that’s nearly fully rested thanks to Framber Valdez’s heroic Game 5 performance.

After Game 3, the narrative was that the Red Sox should be able to finish off the Astros thanks to their gassed bullpen. In fact, you likely picked up on one of the six thousand-or-so citations that ‘Stros starters had thrown just 6 innings total heading into Game 5. Given how heavily Houston’s relievers were taxed early on in the series, it’s somewhat remarkable how well positioned they are for this one. Only Ryne Stanek was used in Game 5, which means Baker will have more or less his full arsenal at his disposal as he looks to slam the door shut on a Boston comeback. Kendall Graveman, Cristian Javier, Brooks Raley, and Phil Maton have all pitched fairly well in the ALCS to date, and Ryan Pressly’s well-rested presence looms large as well. If the Astros have a moderate to meaningful lead early, it could be awfully tough for the Red Sox to bounce back.

While Valdez spared Houston’s bullpen in Game 5, the Sox were forced to use five relievers, though only two of them—Hansel Robles and Ryan Braiser—figure to be of any real consequence if Game 6 is played in nine innings. Still, cracks are starting to appear in Cora’s relatively thin group of reliable relievers. Garrett Whitlock and Brasier have been hit fairly hard in several of their recent appearances, and counting on Robles is always a dicey proposition. Right now, Cora’s most reliable arms seem to be Whitlock, Adam Ottavino, and Josh Taylor. If Pérez makes another appearance for any reason in this series (or season, really), Cora should be forced to sit out another year.

If the Red Sox have one saving grace it’s that Tanner Houck is well rested and could be a big-time weapon out of the ‘pen. If Eovaldi gets into trouble early or the game goes into extras, Houck may be capable of throwing three or four innings in relief. That could be a life-saver for a Sox team that likely wants to avoid using half of its bullpen at this point.

Well well, look how the tables have turned. After the Red Sox shellacked the Astros for 21 runs in Games 2 and 3, Houston flipped the script, racking up 18 runs in their last two bouts. While Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have had some memorable home runs, it’s been Yordan Álvarez and Yuli Gurriel driving the offense, with Kyle Tucker and Chas McCormick in support. What Álvarez was able to do to Chris Sale on Wednesday was the stuff of legends, and he looks locked in at the moment: he could be a big factor once again against a Red Sox team that offers little in the way of a lefty deterrent save for Taylor. If Alex Bregman finds a way to get going, the Astros look every bit like the offensive juggernaut we’ve all come to know, hate, and fear over the last several years. Their lone weak spot is Martin Maldonado, though that’s admittedly a very weak spot indeed.

The Red Sox may have only scored three runs in the past two games, but their offense has only truly struggled in one of them: while Valdez shut them down, they had a million runners on base and ample opportunity to score runs in Game 4. What the Red Sox face here is what the Astronauts faced going into Game 4. Momentum. Boston had all of it and now the Astros do. How much emphasis should be put on momentum? That’s not for us to decide but what we know for sure is that the books don’t give a fuck and made the Astronauts a very appealing wager here at a very short price. The pressure now shifts back to the Astronauts while Boston has responded greatly this entire season and the postseason when their backs were up against the wall.

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