St. Louis @ NY METS
NY METS -1 +130 over St. Louis

Pinnacle -1½ +130 BET365 -1½ +125 SportsInteraction -1½ +120 BetOnline -1½ +127 Bookmaker

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

NY METS -1½ +125 over St. Louis

7:10 PM EST. Despite losing a bunch of games lately, the Metropolitans have scored 6, 7, 7 and 10 runs respectively in four of their last five games. The problem has not been scoring, it’s been giving up too many runs but we’ll take our chances today that New York’s bats will remain very warm against Jon Lester (LHP - St. L). 

Before we inform you about Lester’s high wire act, allow us to present Tylor Megill (RHP - NYM). Megill had a really rough month in August (6.44 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 29 IP), which suits us just fine because if his stock was soaring, the Mets would be a -220 favorite today, not to mention a run-line favorite too. That said, a 34% hit rate, a 61% strand rate and 20% hr/f teamed to torpedo his surface stats. His skills are actually bordering on elite with a 24% K%, 5% BB%, 19% K-BB% and a 3.42 xERA. Furthermore, most of Megill's command foundation was also elite: 13.5% swing & miss rate, 71% first-pitch strike rate, 35% ball%. That’s bad luck, friends. 

Back to Lester, who is the polar opposite of Megill in terms of luck. Here’s some absolutely incredible numbers…...over his last 28 frames, covering five starts, Lester is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA. To suggest that those are luck-driven numbers would be the understatement of the decade. In said 28 innings, Lester has walked 13 and struck out 13. His strand rate was 86%, his swing and miss rate was 7.9%, his first-pitch strike rate was 52% and his xERA (7.21) was almost six runs higher than his surface ERA. In 119 innings overall, Lester has walked 48 batters while striking out 72 for one of the worst ratios in the game to go along with one of the worst pitching profiles among starters. Dude cannot keep up this fraudulent activity and expect to get away with it much longer. Mets a true bargain here.


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Our Pick

NY METS -1 +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)