Detroit @ PITTSBURGH
Detroit +107 over PITTSBURGH

Pinnacle +107 BET365 +100 SportsInteraction +100 BetOnline +105 Bookmaker +100

Posted at 2:15 PM EST. 

Detroit +107 over PITTSBURGH 

6:35 PM EST. Well, what do we have here? After Tarik Skubal and then Wily Peralta got beat by the Pirates, the Tigers will send out it’s worst option today in Matt Manning (LHP - DET). Manning is coming off a disaster and owns a 6.20 ERA/5.89 xERA over his last four games started. Walks and hard contact have been tilting the wrong way, and that calls even a start like this one against lowly Pittsburgh into question. The market now sees Detroit’s worst option and will likely figure that the Pirates are a bargain. If they win, they are a bargain but we wouldn’t count on it.

Mitch Keller's (RHP - PIT) stock is high, at least for him, after mowing down the Cubs last time out to the tune of six shutout innings and eight punchouts. While those numbers are impressive, the Cubbies are a glorified Double-A team at this point, so tempering one's expectations of a second straight dominant outing might be prudent. On the season, Keller sports a bloated 5.57 xERA and just a 38.6% groundball rate. Dude's swing & miss rate is also a puny 8.1%, so to expect him to consistently rack up the strikeouts is not advisable. Fading Pittsburgh when it is favored is something we can certainly get on board with as its chances of losing are always greater than its chances of winning. 

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Our Pick

Detroit +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)