BALTIMORE -1 +187 over L.A. Angels

Pinnacle -1½ +187 BET365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction +100 BetOnlin-1½ +185 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

BALTIMORE -1½ +187 over L.A. Angels

1:10 PM EST. Two horrible starters here. First up is Keegan Akin (LHP - BAL) who happens to be Exhibit A in outlining the danger and intrigue of small sample sizes. Akin missed a little over two weeks with COVID issues and has pitched to a 7.04 ERA over 15 innings since his return. Before then, he was starting regularly with little success. A long history of shaky control doesn’t help either. The sum of those extremes profiles him like many others: a high-risk, moderate-reward play.

Then there’s 24-year-old Jaime Barria (RHP - LAA), who is 3-2 after just seven appearances with five of those coming as a starter. Barria has 17 K’s in 31 innings. A small sample this year combined with shiny surface stats last year will reel some in but there are three reasons you should not follow suit.  1) Disaster starts % is 2x higher than quality starts %. 2) he's a flyball pitcher with marginal stuff; 3) tiny HR/F likely to regress to its prior baseline. This is a weak starter pitching for a team that doesn't give a f**k about this game.

One of these teams is very likely going to win by two runs or more. Baltimore snapped a 19-game losing streak yesterday, which sets up an angle we like. That being to bet on teams after snapping a long losing streak because the weight has been lifted and it’s truly amazing what one victory can do to a team’s psyche. Furthermore, the Angels fly home after this one for a weekend battle with the Padres that figures to draw a lot of fans and media. Angels looking ahead and will probably sit some regulars. Great value here.


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Our Pick

BALTIMORE -1 +187 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.74)