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Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

Washington -1½ +150 over MIAMI

7:10 PM EST. Why not Washington again? For whatever reason, the Nats are being disrespected again in today’s market just like they were in last night’s opener. Today’s starting pitching matchup is even more favorable than yesterday’s, as the Nats will face a rookie that pitched at Double-A for the majority of this year. 

Edward Cabrera (RHP - MIA) is making his major league debut after compiling a 3.68 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across 29.1 IP over six games started at Triple-A after being promoted from Double-A in July. Cabrera is a strikeout right-hander (48 K’s in his 29.1 IP at Triple-A) going against a good contact club.

Cabrera got off to a slow start this year by opening on the IL with bicep tendonitis. There were reports his change had bumped at the alt site last year, but the delayed start put the 6'5", 217-pound Dominican on the periphery, especially considering the lost season. The 23-year-old has quietly upped his stock this year across two levels and so here we are. Obviously, he has upside but that 1.40 WHIP spells trouble. He walked 25 batters in 61 innings with three minor-league teams this year across three levels (just one appearance at Single-A). Falling behind major league batters is different from falling behind minor leaguers. We also don’t know how he’ll react to the big show. He’s evenly priced today against another rookie but the difference is that Washington’s rookie has paid some dues and has proven he belongs. 

Josiah Gray (RHP - WAS) has gone six frames each of his last two games. A Marlins club with a .556 OPS over a seven-game losing streak from Aug. 16-22 figures as a welcome change for Gray. The Nationals rookie has faced four top-10 OPS opponents in his first six games. Dude has struck out 35 very good hitters in 30 innings and comes in without a victory yet. That figures to change here, as we get the superior starter pitching for the superior team. 

Finally, it’s worth noting that Washington’s pitching staff has absolutely squashed Miami’s hitters all season long. The Nats are 8-3 against the Fish this year while holding the Marlins to a combined batting average of .203

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