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Posted at 10:45 AM EST. 

ATLANTA -1½ +165 over Cincinnati

7:20 PM EST. Touki Toussaint (RHP - ATL) is a risk to be sure. Dude has only started four games this year covering 22 innings while posting an ERA of 4.43. However, his xERA is 3.60. The problem in the past was a lack of control. This is an athletic prospect who dominated AA/AAA hitters (163 K, .202 OppBA over 136 IP) in 2018. His swing & miss rate speaks to his stuff. When he’s on, he’s nasty but when he’s off, it can get ugly. 

An example in Toussaint's inconsistencies can be found in a three-start span in August of last year when he threw an absolute gem on August 6 against the Blue Jays but was then horrible in his subsequent two starts. Consider that in his August 6 outing he tallied a 71% First-pitch strike rate, a 17% swing & miss rate, 51% Zone% and 29% Ball%, but those marks all went in the opposite direction on August 11th and 17th.

This year, Toussaint’s control has been much sharper in a small sample size. In his 22 frames this year he has walked just six while whiffing 23. He has been working extensively on some mechanical issues but if it has been corrected and he can consistently throw strikes, he’s poised to break out quickly. That’s a chance we’re willing to take here. 

Wade Miley (LHP - CIN) has made 20 starts this year and is 9-4 with a 2.75 ERA. We faded Miley in his first start of the year and this is what we wrote back in April:

Not much went right for Miley during first year with Cincinnati. On-field results were unimpressive, and he landed on the IL (groin, shoulder) after two of his four starts. A consistent groundball lean keeps hope for rebound alive, but just barely. Given weak K%, shaky xBB% and bloated xERA history, there is little reason to keep him on your radar. 

Wade Miley is 34 years old. In 121 frames, he has struck out 93 batters for one of the worst K-rates in the majors among starters. His groundball rate is still elite but his swing & miss rate is well below average at a puny 7.9%. His line-drive rate is 27%, which is also well below league average. Miley induces groundballs but he’s also been on the extreme side of good luck with an 88% strand rate. His xERA since the All-Star break is 5.25 so we’re going to wager and hopefully cash in on his ERA and WHIP rising over the remainder of 2021. Wade Miley’s 2.75 surface ERA is a complete mirage.

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