Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
Baltimore -1½ +170 over DETROIT
1:10 PM EST. It appears as though Pinnacle Sports is no longer offering Alternative Run lines in MLB. Whether that is permanent or temporary remains to be seen, as it has only been three days since they have been off the board at Pinny so we’re adding BetOnline to our lists of outs. BetOnline offers Alternative Run Lines, live betting on every game, fair vig or odds and everything else we look for in a book. They also accept US players and if you are so inclined, you can deposit and withdraw using Bitcoin.
It sure looks to us that this is going to be a high scoring game, as two garbage starters square off to begin and then two shaky bullpens will try and wiggle in and out of some jams. In what has to be considered a 50/50 proposition for one of these teams to blow out the other, we’ll side with the Orioles simply because the price is too sweet not to.
First up is Spenser Watkins (RHP - BAL). Set to retire and start work as a high-school baseball coach, the Orioles signed him this past off-season, culminating in his unexpected call-up. There's a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider, as well as mid-80s change. 6'2" and 185 pounds, Watkins comes with a high three-quarter delivery and the surface stats say he's been effective for Triple-A Norfolk, but his component skills remain lackluster (11.3% swing & miss, 47.9% fly-balls). Dude has made five appearances, four as a starter and a 81% strand rate say7s he’s been lucky. Watkins won’t be around for long. He’ll most likely end up as just a good story that provided the O’s some organizational depth when they needed it. He comes in with a misleading 3.10 ERA and a skills supported 5.64 xERA. We are crossing our fingers and hoping he can limit the damage.
Speaking of damage, say hello to Tyler Alexander (LHP - DET). This southpaw remains somewhat deadly against same-sided brethren, and that growing K rate will put him on some radars but we’re not buying any of it. His xBB% makes rising BB% even more ominous, RH bats mash him, which bodes very well here because the Orioles are loaded on the right side. Baltimore might not even have one left-handed bat in the lineup today. Alexander’s xERA the past three games is 6.97 with a swing & miss rate of 5.8%, thus we certainly like the Orioles chances of putting up something crooked more than Detroit’s chances.
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Baltimore -1½ +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)