Cincinnati @ N.Y. METS
Cincinnati -1 +170 over N.Y. METS

Pinnacle -1½ +168 BET365 -1½ +155 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +170 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

Cincinnati -1½ +170 over N.Y. METS

7:10 PM EST. Rich Hill (LHP - NYM) has been a target of ours all season and we see no reason to let up here, especially considering his new digs. The Mets made some moves before the trade deadline, with Hill being one of those acquisitions. Also added was Javier Baez from the Cubs who will make his debut in orange and blue tonight. Back to Hill, who we've labelled a one-pitch pitcher since the crackdown on the sticky stuff. Hill has made one start with the Mets and he was touched up for three runs on five hits over five innings while striking out just one. There are a number of red flags in Hill's profile, including an xERA of 4.43, which is higher than his surface number (3.95). A 38.6% groundball rate also does not inspire, nor does his puny swing and miss rate of 9.5%.

We've backed Wade Miley (LHP - CIN) a few times this season and he appears to be offering up some value here. While not spectacular or overpowering, Miley has been a steady hand this season. His 50.5% groundball rate is elite and keeps him out of trouble more often than not. Miley has seen a significant drop in his walk rate over last season (2.78 BB/9 from 5.65 BB/9) as well. In his last 10 turns, Miley is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and we trust that he should be his usual solid self again tonight.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati -1 +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)