Cincinnati @ N.Y. METS
Cincinnati -1 +190 over N.Y. METS

Pinnacle -1½ +190 BET365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +190 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

Cincinnati -1½ +190 over N.Y. METS

7:10 PM EST. Excuse us, but what the fuck has Carlos Carrasco done to deserve being priced in a range like this? Dude is coming in off the bench cold into the middle of a heated playoff race. It would be one thing if Carrasco were in mid-season form, but he will no doubt be on a strict pitch count, as the Mets try to break him in for the run to October. It's not as if Carrasco had a lengthy and successful rehab stint either; dude pitched just 6 2/3 innings across three minor league starts to get ready for tonight. Perhaps Carrasco is the one great pitcher he was in Cleveland, but this price is way too steep to find out.

Sonny Gray has been a tough luck loser in 2021, as his 2-6 record might suggest. His Batting Average on Balls in Play is an inflated .339, a career high, which suggests he's been a tad unlucky. His xERA is a tidy 3.79, which is lower than his surface number of 4.50. From our perch, the goods under the hood are in line with his pretty darn successful career numbers and there is nothing here in his profile that would suggest he deserves this kind of disrespect from the market. 

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Our Pick

Cincinnati -1 +190 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.80)