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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

PITTSBURGH +170 over Milwaukee

7:05 PM EST. The Brewers arrived in Pittsburgh fresh off an important series win over the White Sox. Instead of suffering a letdown, the Crew went on to abuse the Pirates in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 16-3. The Crew won the opener 9-0 and then had a 7-1 lead last night going to the ninth before the Buccos would score two meaningless runs. Recency bias means we get the Pirates at a great price here and we’re on it. 

Freddy Peralta (RHP - MIL) regressed badly in July after starting the season with three months of rock solid xERA numbers. Peralta’s 3.00 ERA for the month of July is excellent, but a (lucky) 14% hit rate and a 4.52 xERA say that regression could hit at any moment. The Pirates have struggled at home, with a .702 OPS, but they have posted a .775 OPS over the past two weeks. Peralta gets an excellent K rating for this outing, but his xERA and xWHIP ratings are shaky. This start may not be the slam dunk that it appears to be on the surface.

Enter Chad Kuhl (RHP - PIT), who has been outstanding over the past month, with a 3.05 ERA in his past four starts, supported by a 3.24 xERA. Kuhl has made two starts against the Brewers this season, both in Milwaukee, and allowed 8 ER in 8.2 innings, which the market figues to eat up. Thing is, this is not the same Kuhl the Crew will face today. Dude is sharper and much more confident this time around. Furthermore, he won’t have Christian Yelich to deal with. Kuhl has been at his best at home, where he has a 2.36 ERA. Milwaukee has been average against RHP, with a .690 OPS, and average on the road, with a .706 OPS. The Buccos may not win today but we promise you that it’s a big time overlay.

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