Houston @ SEATTLE
Houston -1 +146 over SEATTLE

Pinnacle -1½ +146 BET365 -1½ +145 SportsInteraction -1½ +145 BetOnlin-1½ +145 Bookmaker -1½ +145

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

Houston -1½ +146 over SEATTLE

3:40 PM EST. The Mariners have been one of the big surprises this season, as they post a 55-47 record and sit just one game back of Oakland for the second Wild Card. While the story is a nice one, the M's differential (-51) is not and it pokes holes in the positive narrative. There are few teams in baseball with more than 50 wins that sport a negative number, the Phillies (50), Cubs (50) and Cardinals (51). When that win threshold is upped to 55, there is only one, Seattle.

Yusei Kikuchi was an All-Star this season and to be honest, we like much of what he has going on. However, it's the toothless lineup that supports him that is the problem. That said, it is likely that Kikuchi's stock is trading at a career high, as he appears to be fulfilling the hype that came with him in 2019.

It's not often the Astronauts are priced in this range to win by two or more but that just goes to show how much the market values wins over all else. Jake Odorizzi (RHP - HOU) will take the mound today and by comparison, his 'mates have racked up a +143 run differential, which trails only the Dodgers (145). The Astros are still the most disciplined plate team in MLB, which they lead by a significant margin. We discussed Odorizzi back on July 17 in his start against the White Sox and we believe that he is still uber undervalued considering his profile. He's not an ace, but with the potent bats behind him, he does not have to be.

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Our Pick

Houston -1 +146 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.92)