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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. 

Cincinnati -1½ +242 over CHICAGO

8:05 PM EST. The Cubs rallied last night with three straight runs, including a walk-off in the bottom of the ninth to knock off the Reds 6-5. It was a bitter result for those of us that had Cincinnati, up 5-3 after five innings. The Reds would not score again despite ample opportunities.

Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP - CIN) will look to turn it around for the Reds after getting touched up for six runs on nine hits against the Mets in his last outing, July 19. The rookie doesn't offer much and what you see on the surface is pretty much what you are going to get. However, that Gutierrez does not register on the market's radar serves us well here, as he faces another rookie who is getting some hype.

Adbert Alzolay (RHP - CHI) has some hype as the Cubs' top pitching prospect, but his standing free falls when including all the top prospects in all of baseball. He's not bad; he’s just not as good as he's hyped to be be. This season, Alzolay has been mostly average, with most of his underlying statistics being mediocre and in line with many league averages. To be honest, he's not even the target today; it's his ragtag teammates. This total suggests the wind is blowing out and runs could be scored in bunches, making the Reds on the run line the prudent play.

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