Toronto @ BOSTON
Toronto -1 +178 over BOSTON

Pinnacle -1½ +178 BET365 -1½ +160 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +175 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 3:30 PM EST. 

Toronto -1½ +178 over BOSTON

7:10 PM EST. Nick Pivetta (RHP - BOS) is certainly a worthy fade target, but today has little to do with him. Before we get to the main course, we'll mention that his groundball rate is nothing to write home about at just 37%, nor is his bloated walk rate (4.02 BB/9). Mix in a weak swing and miss rate of 10.4% and strand rate of 73.9% and you have the makings of a shaky favorite.

He may have had to wait a week, but Thomas Hatch (RHP - TOR) will finally make his first start of the season today after getting rained out in Buffalo last Tuesday. It won't be Hatch's first look in the majors, as he did put in some time in 2020, posting a 3-1 mark over 17 games and just a 2.73 ERA. However, only one of those appearances was a game he started. The word from the Blue Jays is that Hatch will have the chance to pitch himself into a rotation spot. Dude has been working on a cutter for a couple of seasons now and he did project as an end of the rotation starter upon graduation, so it’s not like a starter’s role is beyond his profile. While the cutter is still just a small part of the hard-throwing right-hander’s arsenal, it does not give him a five pitch mix. That heater can touch 96 MPH and he's got two out-pitches that can follow it with his slider and change up.

The Cubs drafted Hatch in the third round in 2016 and he was the key piece coming back to Toronto in the David Phelps trade. While not imposing physically on the mound, Hatch does have some upside and for the Blue Jays, he will be a sight for sore eyes. Most interestingly, when Hatch was set to take the mound last week against these Red Sox, he was the chalk. While the matchup and venue have changed, this is a pretty significant swing and we can't help but see tremendous value in the Blue Jays here.

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Our Pick

Toronto -1 +178 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.56)

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