Pinnacle -1½ +185 BET365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnline -1½ +150 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 11:30vAM EST. 

N.Y. Yankees -1½ +185 over BOSTON

1:10 PM EST. Martin Perez (LHP - BOS) has been out-pitching his metrics for years and quite frankly, the Red Sox were not even expecting much when they signed him but he has posted a very respectable 4.16 ERA after 19 starts to go along with his 7-6 record. Martin Perez, if nothing else, eats innings and that, too, is valuable, however, this stiff priced in this range means we have to try and take advantage. You see, there are shaky signs everywhere with Perez and his lucky hit-rate isn't likely to be as friendly the rest of the way. Perez has a lousy 74 K’s in 89 frames. He also walks too many guys. His swing and miss rate is still low at 7.9%, which comes after years of posting unrosterable xERA/xWHIP numbers. His "B" consistency just means more of the same and that's not a good thing.

Domingo Germán’s (RHP - NYY) recent form may not help his ERA on Sunday, as he has a 6.92 ERA in his last five games. That means the market is selling, which in turn usually means we are buying. German’s 22% K% will match up versus the Red Sox's average K% vs. RHP. His WHIP rating is more positive, as his 6% BB% and 1.23 career WHIP says he’s capable of throwing a gem every time he takes the mound.

The Red Sox have beaten up on New York recently until yesterday when the Yanks rallied late to steal a win. That positive momentum had to take a weight off their shoulders, which has to be considered a very good sign.

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