MILWAUKEE -1 +176 over Chicago

Pinnacle -1½ +176 BET365 -1½ +175 SportsInteraction -1½ +170 BetOnlin-1½ +175 Bookmaker -1½ +175

Posted at 2:00 PM EST. 

MILWAUKEE -1½ +176 over Chicago

5:10 PM EST. The Brewers came out swinging last night with a 7-1 win in the opener of this series and we see little reason not to come right back on them here today with Corbin Burnes (RHP - MIL) on the mound. We could gush over Burnes all day and just might. Dude is great. Fucking great. His strikeout rate is 13.13/K9, which is in line with all of his three seasons, and his groundball rate went from great to elite (50.7%). Also elite is his swing & miss rate (16.25%). Burnes has been incredible since 2018 and he's not even regarded by most as the best pitcher on his team. That's fine with us. So, too, is the fact that Burnes' breakout season has been overshadowed by many others on the mound, including deGrom, Darvish, Ohtani, Gausman, Wheeler and the man his 'mates will face today, Carlos Rodon (LHP - CHI).

Rodon is also having a career year and is coming off an All-Star appearance. We're not going to hammer the guy. He totally backs up his record with some nice underlying numbers. Rodon has been buzzing for years, as the former #3 pick in 2014 has flashed the goods in spurts, but could not put it all together over the long haul. If the first half of 2021 is a sign of things to come, Rodon will likely supplant Lucas Giolito as the White Sox ace if he hasn't already. While we hate to rain on one's parade, are we to trust that the real Rodon has finally stepped up? Or is this the same dude that posted a 28% ground ball rate in 2020? A 38.6% GB rate this season is nothing to write home about. As it always has been with Rodon, it's hard to trust that he's finally rounded into form. His K’s per 9 from 2018 to 2021 are 6.71, 11.94, 7.04, 13.03. That last mark represents a career high. One might argue that we are stepping in front of a freight train with Rodon but we have Burnes to counter and the Crew are seeing beach balls up there. We also loved the way that Craig Counsell out-managed (by a wide margin) Tony LaDrunka last night and will continue to outmanage him.


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Our Pick

MILWAUKEE -1 +176 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.52)