Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:00 PM EST.
Atlanta -1½ +118 over PHILADELPHIA
7:05 PM EST. In the spirit of sticking with it, we are coming right back on the Braves today despite ripping up our ticket last night. Sure it's a new day in a new town, but Atlanta should benefit from taking a step down in competition after battling the Padres.
Today Charlie Morton (RHP - ATL) takes another spin and there is little reason not to trust that he will continue his run of quality starts, which he has hurled in five of his last six trips out. That includes two straight against the Marlins and Rays, where he struck out a combined 15 batters through 13 innings. What you see is what you get with Chuck, pretty much across the board. That’s a good thing. High Ks, an xERA just 0.11 points higher than his surface number (3.69) and a groundball rate that we'll take every night (47.7%). His 12.5% swing and miss rate is a tick above the league average too. He also has pitching smarts, which there are no metrics from which to measure how valuable that is.
The perception that the Braves’ season ended when Ronald Acuña Jr. was carted off the field nearly two weeks ago has left Atlanta undervalued. The Braves are a team that may be due for some progression as their run differential does not match their modest 46-48 record. For some perspective, the Phillies are a -11 to the Braves +25, but Atlanta trails them by a game in the NL East as this series gets set to begin.
Matt Moore (LHP - PHI) will try to stop the bleeding for a Philadelphia side that was swept in a two-game set by the Yankees. Matt Moore has made 13 appearances this year, seven as a starter and has not registered a quality start. He has zero wins. His only half decent start occurred way back on On June 25, where Moore pitched five shutout innings, and that apparently has kept him in the rotation; however, he did not pitch even five innings in his next three starts. Since then, he has pitched 12.2 innings in those three starts, allowing 14 hits, five walks while posting an xERA of 7.43 Combine that with the Phils appearing to be living a bit of a charmed life and we have an underpriced favorite that has the ability to pop off. Next man up.
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Atlanta -1½ +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)