San Diego @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA +115 over San Diego

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Posted at 2:00 PM EST,

ATLANTA +115 over San Diego

12:20 PM EST. As un underdog yesterday, we pencilled in Kyle Muller (LHP - ATL) over Yu Darvish but Muller was pushed ahead a day and will start the first game of this double dipper. Point being, if we liked Muller as a pooch against Darvish, certainly we’re going to take him and the Braves as a pooch today. 

Kyle Muller (LHP - ATL) was a projection bet when the Braves took him in the second round in 2016. Now beyond imposing at 6'7" and 250 pounds and armed with two plus pitches and a four-pitch mix, that bet is looking to have been a good one. The fastball has just kept on getting faster and now sits 96. It has excellent spin, plays well up in the zone, and gets plus plus grades from everyone. His slider is a plus offering with a hard, nasty bite. Muller's curveball is still an above-average pitch and his changeup has come along nicely. In 16 innings covering three starts and one relief appearance, Muller has whiffed 20 while walking eight. His swing & miss rate is off the charts at 17% while his hard hit ball rate is a measly 9%. No starter in baseball has a hard hit ball rate as low as Muller’s but the sample size is a small one. Still, the kid has absolute elite stuff and if he's locating, he’s almost unhittable. The market has yet to acknowledge this kid so the time to buy is now.

Chris Paddack (RHP - SD) has been rocked for a 10.31 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over his last 18.1 innings. The Braves have registered 6.1 runs per game on the strength of an .814 OPS in their last 14 games. They are at their best when at home and against RHPs and therefore it is the Braves that should be very slightly favored and not the Friars. A definite overlay here. 


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Our Pick

ATLANTA +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)