Tampa Bay @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1 +173 over Tampa Bay

Pinnacle -1½ +170 BET365 -1½ +173 SportsInteraction -1½ +170 BetOnlin-1½ +170 Bookmaker -1½ +170

Posted at 2:45 PM EST. 

ATLANTA -1½ +173 over Tampa Bay

1:20 PM EST. Drew Smyly (LHP - ATL) has benefited from some generous rates around the margins in posting a 2.69 ERA over his last six starts but this matchup appears to favor him, as he’s facing a Rays’ squad that sits second last in the entire league in OPS v lefties (Smyly career vs. LHBs: .647 OPS allowed). The Rays will have at least five and likely six left-handed bats in the lineup.

This wager is all about fading Rich Hill (LHP - TB) again. Hill’s 3.74 ERA this season is a lucky hit %-fueled sham. His xERA, xHR/F and other underlying metrics say it should be much worse. His fastball has dipped to a bounce-off-glass level, which is revealed in his 7.4% swing & miss rate. His control is wobbling, too. It's been a fun ride with the curveball king, but the end is very close. With the crackdown on the illegal substances, Rich Hill is a one-pitch pitcher. In his last game, he and the Rays lost 3-1 to the Jays and that looks good on paper but once again it was luck-fueled. He walked three and struck out two and posted a 7.04 xERA. Ever since the crackdown, that’s what his xERA has looked like in four straight starts. He’ll now pitch in an extreme hitter’s park, which means the Rays are going to have to put up a seriously crooked number because the Braves figure to get theirs.

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Our Pick

ATLANTA -1 +173 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.46)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO
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