Miami @ PHILADELPHIA
Miami -1 +158 over PHILADELPHIA

Pinnacle -1½ +158 BET365 N/A SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +155 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 2:00 PM EST. 

Miami -1½ +158 over PHILADELPHIA

6:05 PM EST. Vincent Velasquez (RHP - PHI) is trending in a bad direction, with a 6.91 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 5.65 xERA over his last six games. His one gem during that stretch? A beauty that consisted of seven shutout innings at home against the Marlins on June 29th. In fact, in two starts against Miami this year, he's yet to allow an earned run, though his xERA against them is 4.59. If Velasquez gets lucky against the Fish three times in a row, oh well.

Zach Thompson (RHP - MIA) continues to impress, with a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.48 xERA, 11.6 K/9, and a 15.6% swing & miss rate through his first five career starts. The Phillies have been a middle-of-the-pack lineup at home (.724 OPS), with a below-average 71% contact rate that figures to allow Thompson to continue racking up some Ks. Zach Thompson is still under the radar. It may also surprise you to learn that Miami’s run differential (+21) is tops in the NL East. There is a massive correlation between a positive/negative run differential and winning/losing records. Miami and Atlanta are the only two teams in baseball with a positive run differential and a record below .500, thus, a correction to the good is forthcoming.

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Our Pick

Miami -1 +158 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.16)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO
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