Pinnacle +183 BET365 +170SportsInteraction +170 BetOnline +180 Bookmaker +170

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Pittsburgh +183 over N.Y. METS

Taijuan Walker (RHP - NYM) reminded us of his prior top prospect upside during June (3.26 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 30 IP) but let’s not get carried away here. He’s not close to being the pitcher he once was, as he's more control (74% first-pitch strike rate, 31% ball%) over stuff (8.6% swing & miss rate) at this point in his career. Putting the ball in play against a starter is always something we can get behind and so is taking back this ridiculous price on Pittsburgh’s hidden ace.

Jonathan Brubaker (RHP - PIT) is a must-bet underdog in this range when he starts. Brubaker has a 3.58 xERA on the road while averaging 11.6 K’s/9. An inflated 27% hr/f on the road deserves most of the blame for his inflated surface ERA. Brubaker can paint the corners with the best of them. He rarely walks anyone and he has at least two different put-away pitches. His surface numbers aren’t particularly noteworthy or noticeable but that’s the point. There's speculative value here to be sure. A growing K% is boosting his overall skills; Not adverse to throwing strikes to MLB hitters; Ability to induce grounders limits downside. He’s figured it out but it has not shown up yet in his numbers and we have to try and take advantage of his very under the radar skills.

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