Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:30 PM EST.
Colorado -1½ +151 over ARIZONA
9:40 PM EST. Humberto Castellanos (RHP - ARI) makes his season debut as a starter after seven meaningless innings in relief. Prior to last season, there was little to no ink on him. After last season, all there really is was his involvement in a benches clearing brawl during his major league debut in 2020, when he softly nudged Ramon Laureano of the A’s with a 77-mph curveball and after getting to first, Laureano charged Astros hitting coach Alex Citron in the dugout. Now, in Laureano's defense, he'd been hit earlier in the game, and also had been hit earlier in the series by a Castellanos fastball. But you're here for the 5'11", 218-pounder's repertoire, so onward march. There's a 90-mph fastball in here and he can change the grip to give it more sink. Castellanos mixes in a change-up, curve, and slider, tending to go to the curve most, but he equally mixes the whole deal. Nothing in here is really plus or even above-average, but he does have solid control of his repertoire, allowing him the ability to get major league hitters out, just with not much margin of error.
At the end of the day, dude could not get a start or a high leverage appearance even in the middle or near the end of the worst road losing streak in MLB history. Does that not speak volumes? You would think that in the midst of a 5-36 run that someone in the front office or dugout staff would suggest giving Castellanos a start but the DBacks didn’t want him anywhere near the mound until now. In his 12 frames in relief, Castellanos has a 6.09 xERA with a 6% swing & miss rate and now he and the worst team in baseball are evenly priced against the Rockies?
Antonio Senzatela (RHP, COL) has pitched better of late than what shows in his surface stats. Over the last month, he has registered a 4.80 ERA while pitching through the haze of a 37% hit rate. He hasn’t pitched great on the road (6.35 ERA), but that’s been with a 39% hit rate. Dude has been very unlucky but make no mistake that this Colorado starter is on the verge of making some serious noise. Senzatela has a BB/K split of 4/26 over his last 30 innings with a top-tier 62% groundball rate and an outstanding 10% line-drive rate. His xERA over his past five games is an elite 3.44 Enter a Diamondbacks club which scuffles against righties (.658 OPS) and one that has logged all of a .628 OPS overall over the last four weeks. The Rocks are the bargain of the day.
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Colorado -1½ +151 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.02)