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Posted at 2:45 PM EST. 

MIAMI -1½ +200 over L.A. Dodgers

7:10 PM EST. Tony Gonsolin (RHP - LA) has made four starts in his five appearances this season, however he has only thrown a maximum of 81 pitches. Four innings has been his longest outing of the season to this point so it’s reasonable to assume that the Dodgers pen will factor in. Bullpens are a roll of the dice. In any case, walks have been a big problem for Gonsolin and is a big driver in his poor skills (5.10 xERA, 18% BB%, 14% K-BB%). Tony Gonsolin has a 2.81 ERA. Dude has struck out 22 batters in 16 frames but he’s also walked 13.

A low hit rate and low HR/F rate make this profile look good when it is not. That further overvalues a pitcher who already had a large MLB ERA/xERA gap in 2019 (2.93/4.70) and has one again this year (5.13 xERA).

Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIA) hit the first batter he faced in his last start and was tossed out, thus, he figures to be fresh and raring to go here. Pablo Lopez isn’t good, he’s great. At the age of 25, his pitching IQ is off the charts. This pitch-mix tinkerer has found a winning formula with a wicked change up (20% swing & miss rate) a cut fastball, a sinker and a curve. He’ll throw any pitch at any time, no matter the count. Hitters have to guess right against him and they usually don’t. Lopez has a BB/K split of 22/94 in 91 frames. His groundball rate has been good all year but it’s even better lately with a 54% rate over his last five starts. Scan through all starters at this level and you would be hard-pressed to find one that has a better xERA than Lopez’s 2.61. That makes us buyers.

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